The Bitcoin halving was supposed to be a day of celebration and the end to Bitcoin’s woes of the prior four years. On that late Friday night (and in technical, computer geek UTC time, a party-perfect date of 4/20), Bitcoin turned the page to its fifth epoch.

Fans cheered the end of its 28-month-long bear market and waved goodbye to the fourth epoch’s 6.25 BTC block reward, welcoming a halved inflation rate of just 3.125 BTC per block. They hoped that the disinflationary shock might boost the price, and usher in a suite of upgrades to Bitcoin’s functionality that would fund a wellspring for its security budget.

Unfortunately, reality has failed to live up to their expectations. The price of bitcoin hasn’t rallied since the halving, nor has the halving increased Bitcoin’s security budget.

A cornucopia of new activity was supposed to arise from a suite of Bitcoin-branded protocols at the halving. This was to be based on Ordinals, a software program that pretends to track satoshis, the smallest denomination of 1 BTC.

Ordinals were supposed to empower active secondary markets for numismatics (collectible markets for unique satoshis or ‘rare sats’) and enable permanent data storage and on-chain software with inscriptions. Most importantly, they were designed to underpin Runes, a brand new fungible token protocol for trading ERC20-like tokens and meme coins on Bitcoin.

Buy the rumor, sell the news

All of those fantastic debuts have lifted Bitcoin’s USD-denominated miner’s revenue — the definitive measure of the blockchain’s security budget against real-world adversaries — exactly nowhere.

At block 840,000, Casey Rodarmor’s highly anticipated Runes protocol launched to fanfare and prompted the largest-ever amount of money paid for a single block in Bitcoin’s history: 74 BTC ($4.7 million). A single satoshi, the so-called ‘epic sat’ number 1,968,750,000,000,000, resold at auction for $2.1 million.

It was a promising start. Just imagine, fans of Rodarmor thought: a single satoshi (commonly valued at 1/100 millionth of bitcoin’s current price, $62,000) reselling for millions of dollars. 

However, there’s no free lunch. Only a small amount of speculative new money actually entered the secondary markets for these collectible satoshis. As a result, Ordinals, Inscriptions, Rare Sats, and Runes traders could no longer afford to continually overpay miners for on-chain transaction fees.

Runes failed to help Bitcoin’s security budget

Fees from this nascent community — heralded as the leading source of revenue for Bitcoin’s security budget post-halving — have evaporated. Runes, like so many Bitcoin-branded projects for creating altcoins before it, failed to sustain its hype for even two days after the halving.

In all, bitcoin miners’ revenue is down 75% since the halving. Worse, Bitcoin’s security budget (approximately $30 million daily) is now lower than miners’ median revenue this year (approximately $50 million daily).

Read more: Prices of Bitcoin Runes dip two days after launch

The chart of Bitcoin’s security budget says it all. In the run-up to the halving, excitement swelled about a supposed new era for Bitcoin. Fans cheered the rising transaction fees, which spiked on the day of the halving. Traders spent millions to buy satoshis commonly valued at 1/100 millionth of 1 BTC and gladly overpaid miners with obscene transaction fees. 

Less than one month later, all of their bids have made no difference to Bitcoin’s ongoing security budget. Runes failed its fans. As of today, neither Ordinals, Inscriptions, Numismatics, or any other protocol for trading satoshis have lifted Bitcoin’s security budget above its prior average.

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Bitcoin was supposed to gain a new suite of features after its 4/20 Halving date thanks to Casey Rodarmor’s Runes, his new fungible token protocol. User numbers and prices have both dropped rapidly since launch.

It was claimed that Runes would be superior to BRC-20s, STAMPs and various other Bitcoin-branded fungible token protocols because it would require fewer on-chain transactions.

Rodarmor gained a cult following after his success at applying his take on ordinal theory to Bitcoin. He purposefully created a First In First Out (FIFO) convention to allow Bitcoiners to track imaginary satoshis, the smallest denominations of bitcoin, across transactions. Inadvertently, by coding his Ordinals theory into software, Rodarmor somewhat accidentally created a popular NFT protocol that became a multi-billion dollar marketplace. As speculators lost millions and enriched an elite group of NFT promoters selling Inscriptions to followers, they rallied behind Rodarmor and asked for more.

The masters of trading NFTs-on-satoshis wanted a new project to enable even more types of degenerate trading on Bitcoin. They wanted traditional meme coins like DOGE or PEPE “on” Bitcoin. Rodarmor delivered.

Read more: Bitcoin ordinals pump and dump using stolen images and copyright

Casey Rodarmor writes fungible token protocol Runes

He even admitted in his founding blog post for Runes that he was simply catering to their desires for scams and memes. “I’m not sure creating a new fungible token protocol for Bitcoin is a good idea. Fungible tokens are 99.9% scams and memes. However, they don’t appear to be going away any time soon.” That, at least, is an honest rationale.

So, Rodarmor created Runes, his better-than-the-rest protocol for traders to create, or “etch” fungible tokens and track ownership using satoshis (1/100 millionth of 1 BTC). 

Of course, tracking ownership via satoshis is mathematically impossible without adopting Rodarmor’s Ordinals theory of how satoshis might, by shared belief, somehow persist across blockchain transactions on a modified First In First Out accounting method.

In truth, all satoshis are fully destroyed and newly recreated after every bitcoin transaction. There are no satoshi data bytes that persist across Bitcoin’s blockchain that anyone can physically or mathematically track. Bitcoin’s protocol allows a wallet owner to create brand new satoshis (technically, transaction outputs) every time it creates a transaction, provided that it burns an equal amount of satoshis (transaction inputs). 

Indeed, there is no actual ordering of satoshis on Bitcoin’s blockchain, which are constantly incinerated and recast at each and every transaction. Rodarmor’s Ordinals theory is simply an accounting method, among many possible methods, that requires node operators to run his proprietary, non-Bitcoin Core software to “track” the ownership of satoshis.

Read more: Bitcoin dev Luke Dashjr proposes to ban ‘spam’ ordinals

Runes launches and its first token is 99% premined

Despite the opt-in nature of Rodarmor’s centralized Ordinals protocol for trading Inscriptions or Runes, many traders believed that his new class of fungible tokens would become immensely valuable.

A pseudonymous etcher paid 6.732 BTC in the first block of Bitcoin’s fifth epoch for the privilege of etching Z•Z•Z•Z•Z•FEHU•Z•Z•Z•Z•Z. The etcher then used that top slot of provenance in Rodarmor’s new protocol, “the first Bitcoin Rune,” as marketing material for a questionable marketing campaign.

A website and X account launched offering bullish predictions about the price of the 14-character fungible token. The team claimed the market capitalization of “Fehu” would exceed Dogecoin. 

Of course, the token was a quintessential crypto pump. The founder pre-mined 99% of the supply. (Specifically, the founder owns 111,110,648 Fehu and only released 463 Fehu for anyone else.) This overwhelming control of supply allowed even tiny trades and miniscule secondary market volumes to mark its market capitalization into the billions.

On the day of Fehu’s creation, the token was trading on crypto exchange OKX at an average price of 249,786 satoshis (approximately $160). With a total supply of 111,111,111 Fehu, its 99%-founder-owned, mark-to-market capitalization exceeded $17 billion.

Rune #1 crashes 85% within a month

Today, Fehu is trading on OKX at a price of 32,000 satoshis (approximately $20.50). Its market capitalization is now $2.3 billion – and its founder still own 99% of its supply.

Even with that much insider ownership and commensurate ability to manipulate mark-to-market figures, Fehu has lost 85% of its market cap in less than a month.

Today, Fehu remains the largest Rune by market capitalization. The second- and third-largest runes and both worth less than a quarter billion dollars apiece as of press time.

For now, traditional meme coins on non-Bitcoin protocols remain far more popular. Dogecoin has a $23 billion market capitalization. Pepe exceeds $3.6 billion. Only time will tell whether crypto promoters can bring enough degeneracy into Rodarmor’s Runes protocol to inflate the value of Runes beyond these legacy meme coins.

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This week was supposed to be the moment that fungible tokens on Bitcoin rocketed to prominence. Although some fungible tokens like the billion-dollar ORDI have gained modest popularity using standards like BRC-20 and STAMPS’ SRC-20, a brand new protocol was supposed to supersede these expensive, slow, and data-intensive standards.

On April 20, the day of the Bitcoin halving, Ordinals founder Casey Rodarmor launched his next-generation fungible token protocol, Runes. Hundreds of thousands of wallets minted new Runes, paying all-time high Bitcoin transaction fees.

Runes promised to be a more professional, less expensive, faster, and more seamless protocol for launching altcoins on Bitcoin. Rodarmor coded Runes because, in his words, “Fungible tokens are 99.9% scams and memes. However, they don’t appear to be going away any time soon.”

In short, Rodarmor launched Runes to bring meme coins to Bitcoin.

Degen trading Bitcoin Runes meme coins

When the halving occurred late Friday night, many fans of Rodarmor were busy working instead of celebrating. Many speculators wanted to mint a Rune within the first block of Bitcoin’s halving, paying astronomical fees alongside other users bidding for inclusion in that historically important block.

All told, Bitcoin speculators paid $2.4 million dollars to miners to store less than 4MB of transaction data within Bitcoin’s 840,000th block.

Two days later, many Runes prices have already started cratering. Five of the top eight Runes listed on Unisat have declined over the past 24 hours along with 27 of the top 40 on OKX.

Read more: Ordinals founder Casey Rodarmor to launch Runes at Bitcoin halving

The Casey Rodarmor-friendly leader of multiple Runes and Ordinals collections

Leonidas is a popular educator, influencer, and host of Twitter Spaces about topics relating to Casey Rodarmor. Rodarmor often joins Leonidas’ live social audio rooms to discuss coding and trading tips related to Rodarmor’s altcoins-on-Bitcoin protocols: Ordinals and Runes.

Pre-launch tokens for Leonidas’ DOG GO TO THE MOON Rune have traded only a few hundred thousand dollars within the past 24 hours on an obscure marketplace, Whales Market. Despite this thin market, Leonidas has brazenly predicted a WIF-like, six-figure percentage increase for the price of DOG GO TO THE MOON. A skim of his X feed reveals an endless stream of hyper-bullish, albeit vague price forecasts.

Runes have unusually long ticker symbols by Rodarmor’s design. Not including spaces, all runes must have at least 13 characters. Shorter ticker symbol lengths will slowly unlock for the next four years. 

Leonidas also calls this 14-character (plus spaces) DOG GO TO THE MOON Rune simply ‘DOG’ and wants centralized exchanges to list it using his unofficial, three-character nickname.

He launched DOG GO TO THE MOON in a style similar to how Richard Heart launched PulseChain and PulseX — via a so-called ‘donation.’ Leonidas posted a bitcoin wallet to X with vague innuendos about airdropping donors DOG tokens in the future while disclaiming any financial responsibility. He then conducted a snapshot — as did Richard Heart for PulseChain and PulseX donors — and talked about the impressive financial value of his upcoming DOG airdrop.

He even retweeted a specific DOG valuation: 0.056 BTC. Most donors expect a DOG airdrop from him imminently.

Unlike Richard Heart, no regulator has yet accused Leonidas of wrongdoing. To his credit, Leonidas used substantially all of the donations he received to pay for Bitcoin transaction fees to etch DOG GO TO THE MOON. Heart, in contrast, personally sold collateral backing the value of his proprietary tokens to purchase personal luxury goods.

Leonidas’ most popular Rune, RSIC GENESIS RUNE, has traded less than $5 million on Unisat during the last 24 hours.

Read more Richard Heart claims SEC lawsuit infringes his free speech

Where are Bitcoin Runes traded?

The second-most traded Rune, SATOSHI NAKAMOTO, has traded less than $3 million on Unisat. Both of these Runes have lost at least 10% of their value since yesterday.

Indeed, most Runes have dipped in price over the last 24 hours.

On April 20 and April 21, Unisat was the dominant exchange for secondary trading of Runes. Luminex, the Runes minting and etching platform, is not an exchange but links to Magic Eden’s Runes exchange. Unfortunately, Magic Eden has been plagued by glitches and slow performance. Whales Market tried launching a Runes-on-Solana marketplace for pre-sales and synthetic price exposure, but it hasn’t gained much traction.

Stepping in quickly, giant centralized exchanges quickly overtook these nascent Runes marketplaces.

SATOSHI NAKAMOTO gained a tether-denominated centralized exchange listing on Gate.io, which boosted that Rune’s trading volume by $23 million within one day. Gate.io is by far the most voluminous exchange for Runes secondary trading today with only a single Rune — SATOSHI NAKAMOTO — listed. 

Centralized crypto exchange giant OKX has also listed over 40 Runes for trading. Nevertheless, Gate.io’s trading volume for SATOSHI NAKAMOTO alone dwarfs the combined trading volume for the 41 Runes listed on OKX.

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When the halving occurs this weekend, it will be the most expensive ever. Bitcoin’s price has sextupled since the last halving and is up nearly 100X since the prior halving in 2016. The mining reward is widely anticipated to spike to all-time highs courtesy of the on-chain Runes launch as well as a new ‘Epic Sat’ worth at least seven figures USD.

On every metric imaginable, the event will be rich. Large parties are planned globally, warm-up destination parties charging more than $800 for a ticket have already sold out, and Bitcoiners are trading impromptu ‘futures’ for a payout from the first post-halving block. Social media personalities have already scheduled multiple, competing livestreams on YouTube and X.

Bitcoin’s halving occurs every four years and, as the name suggests, halves the coinbase reward of each new block appended to Bitcoin’s blockchain. On Saturday, the coinbase reward will halve from 6.25 to 3.125 bitcoin per block in guaranteed miner income. The halving doesn’t alter optional transaction fees, which users always voluntarily add to transactions.

Whereas the halving is bad news for miner revenue, it’s good news for Bitcoin’s investor-oriented stock-to-flow. Stock-to-flow, a common financial metric for investors analyzing commodities like oil or gold, is the ratio of existing supply (stock) to incremental additions to supply (flow).

Read more: Halving excitement pumps ‘worthless’ bitcoin testnet

Bitcoin halving: Improved stock-to-flow plus numismatics

This particular halving event is the most expensive ever, not only because of bitcoin’s price or the cost of the upcoming celebrations but because it will simultaneously reward both the stock-to-flow metric and miners’ short-term revenue.

To explain, prior halvings have never had noteworthy financial speculation on numismatics. Numismatics is the additional value of currency above its face value — for example, a limited edition and mint condition silver dollar is worth more than one dollar because of its numismatics.

This year, however, Saturday’s post-halving block will have multi-million dollar bids from numismatic bidders.

Over the past year, a group of Bitcoiners led by Casey Rodarmor have created a multi-billion dollar marketplace for rare and inscribed satoshis — the 1/100 millionth denomination of 1 bitcoin. This community, which uses Rodarmor’s Ordinal theory and associated software like Inscriptions, has created a robust bid for numismatic value.

So this year, unlike prior halving years, wealthy traders are willing to pay millions of dollars to buy individual satoshis immediately after the halving occurs. In particular, traders are willing to pay for Runes, Rodarmor’s new fungible token protocol, Runes-associated protocol mints, and the staggeringly valuable Epic Satoshi which already has speculators eyeing seven figures.

Let the celebrations begin

Numismatics are bringing collectors and speculators to this weekend’s halving party. Unlike any prior time in Bitcoin’s history, they have more money than ever to spend.

This year is an especially rich halving for Bitcoin and not only because the difficulty adjustment and coinbase reward will alter simultaneously. It’s also the most expensive, public, and important halving — and it has landed on a perfect day: Saturday, 04/20/24.

Collectors of Ordinals, Runes, BRC-20, and rare satoshis are joining a Bitcoin community this year that is richer than ever. Tens of millions of new people have bought bitcoin since the last halving, and the price is already up 6X. This halving will be the most expensive ever, by far, across every category — and Bitcoiners have plenty of money to celebrate this moment.

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Blockchains nearly always rely on testnets, kept separate from the ‘mainnet,’ to ensure changes to client software can be introduced safely. Bitcoin has a testnet and this testnet has its own currency, tBTC

Of course, tBTC and the entire Bitcoin testnet are supposed to be worthless. However, crypto’s embracing of degeneracy has transformed tBTC into a real, $25 million-and-growing asset backed by approximately one-third the hash rate of Litecoin.

Litecoin, a proof-of-work blockchain operating since October 2011, has a hash rate of approximately 1 petahashes per second. Testnet bitcoin has a hash rate around 0.36 petahashes per second.

For context, real Bitcoin has a hashrate of 678 exahashes per second. That is 678,000 times more mining security than Litecoin. So neither of these networks have anywhere close to the security of Bitcoin.

Note that Litecoin miners use Scrypt-based hashing which is distinct from Bitcoin miners’ SHA-256 hashing, so the comparison between hashrates is somewhat apples-to-oranges.

Nevertheless, Litecoin has a market capitalization of $5.7 billion while testnet bitcoin, which is also a proof-of-work blockchain, has a mere $25 million market capitalization.

Yes, real Bitcoin miners mine tBTC — with real electricity, for a real profit motive. Although tBTC is not listed on major secondary markets like crypto exchanges, over-the-counter dealers sell tBTC for as much as $1.26 apiece.

Runes and bitcoin testnet airdrop farmers

Many market observers attribute the growth of testnet bitcoin usage to so-called Layer 2s, which are separate blockchains related to a conventional blockchain like Bitcoin. Typically, layer 2s increase speed and throughput while reducing decentralization.

With the upcoming launch of Casey Rodarmor’s Ordinals successor Runes scheduled for Bitcoin’s halvening around April 19, many Bitcoin layer 2s are incentivizing testnet usage. Certain projects are promising airdrops or other incentives to ‘early adopters’ who use pre-release versions of software on testnet. Bitcoin users are creating testnet wallets and airdrop farming while practicing using Runes and other Runes-based meme coins, DeFi platforms, and NFTs.

Read more: Ordinals founder Casey Rodarmor to launch Runes at Bitcoin halving

It all adds up to a considerable amount of real value for an ostensibly worthless sandbox. With the price of tBTC increasing a few pennies seemingly by the day, the halvening date this week should mark an important milestone in the history of Bitcoin’s curiously valuable testnet.

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In two weeks, Ordinals founder Casey Rodarmor will launch Runes, his protocol for fungible tokens that use Bitcoin’s blockchain. Runes will launch on the day of Bitcoin’s halving: currently scheduled for April 20.

Bitcoin’s mining reward halves every four years. After April 20, miners will receive just 3.125 instead of the current 6.25 bitcoin in guaranteed income for every new block they mine.

Runes is so widely anticipated that Bitcoiners are already predicting a torrent of transactions. Bids from Runes users could spike fees over 1,000 satoshis per vByte. For context, current transaction fees on Bitcoin are below 10 sat/vByte.

Rodarmor is a Bitcoin developer and founded Ordinals, a protocol that allows participants to create NFT-like Inscriptions within Bitcoin transactions. Despite Rodarmor’s repeated admonishments and pleas for patience, his Ordinals software also enabled unauthorized, BRC-20 fungible tokens like ORDI.

Rodarmor’s motivation for Runes is somewhat fatalistic and defeatist. “Fungible tokens are 99.9% scams and memes. However, they don’t appear to be going away any time soon.” Yes, that is his primary, verbatim justification for launching Runes.

Read more: Bitcoin ordinals creator causes outcry for wanting to enforce renumbering

Runes ticker symbols will start at 13 characters

In particular, he is launching Runes because he hates the unauthorized version of fungible tokens on Bitcoin, BRC-20s. Rodarmor claims non-Runes fungible token protocols like BRC-20 are inferior; he’s asked Ordinals fans to wait until April 20 for his superior version.

Rodarmor has made a curious choice in launching his BRC-20 competitor. Runes will impose a 13-character limit on ticker symbols. In other words, no one may claim desirable three or four-letter ticker symbols like PEPE. Shorter ticker symbols will progressively unlock on distant future dates.

Runes’ first ticker symbol will be UNCOMMONGOODS. The maximum ticker symbol length is 28 characters.

One of the ways that Runes will be superior to BRC-20, he claims, is that Runes will require fewer on-chain minting transactions. The BRC-20 token ORDI, for example, generated thousands of minting transactions when it launched.

Rodarmor’s Runes protocol will consolidate these minting transactions using alternative techniques, reducing Runes’ on-chain footprint. Ordinals also used sophisticated techniques to consolidate data and reduce on-chain footprint.

‘Digital commodities’ but of course

In his marketing material, Rodarmor is naturally quick to claim that he’s merely launching a platform for ‘digital commodities.’ This is a fantastic claim given that similar platforms like ERC-20 and ERC-721 have been platforms for many, many unregistered securities. 

Former Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) officials have estimated that thousands of ERC-20 ICOs were unregistered securities offerings. That is, in the words of a former SEC Chairman, “every ICO I have seen.” In court filings, SEC Commissioners have already explained why dozens of ERC-20 token offerings were unregistered securities as mere examples of the rampant evasion of securities regulations by ERC-20 creators.

Read more: Explained: Crypto assets deemed as securities by the SEC

In any case, Rodarmor certainly has many fans. By introducing numismatic value to the smallest denomination of BTC called satoshis, he has made many Bitcoiners rich. It’s worked even though Ordinals, in his own words, simply pretends that satoshis persist across most multi-output transactions — a story for another day. 

Inadvertently or not, he created a system for users to resell profile pictures of stolen and copyrighted images. He endowed early Ordinals users with special numismatics like ‘Sub10k’ (the first 10,000 Inscriptions that used Rodarmor’s protocol) and promised to protect collectors’ numbering system.

Runes to be popular for meme coin traders

Rodarmor is a celebrity among meme coin traders. There are countless Runes-themed copycats on alternate blockchains and second layers. Yesterday, for instance, someone launched an unauthorized RUNES meme coin on Solana. Even though it has nothing to do with Rodarmor nor the real Runes project, the doppelgänger rallied thousands of percentage points within hours anyway.

Naturally, Runes will require a Bitcoin wallet and node that supports Ordinals’ ORD software, which isn’t a part of Bitcoin Core software. Some Bitcoin node operators, like Luke Dashjr, strongly oppose Ordinals transactions and filter them as spam.

Not everyone is fan of Ordinals and Runes

Ordinals are controversial, not only because they’ve enabled a host of degenerate activity on Bitcoin’s blockchain, but also because they exploit a combination of Taproot and SegWit incentives in a way that the authors of those Bitcoin upgrades didn’t originally intend.

Conservative Bitcoiners view Ordinals-based Inscription transactions of spam because of two qualities. First, Inscriptions stuff large amounts of data into fee-discounted storage space. Therefore, Ordinals users are ‘underpaying’ for data storage within Bitcoin blocks via Rodarmor’s recently-invented exploit of Taproot and SegWit fee structures.

Second, Ordinals users are often paying for non-financial transactions, such as saving image pixels. This violates conservative Bitcoiners’ desire to advance Bitcoin as a monetary network, not as data storage.

Rodarmor has cited the complexity of BRC-20, the existing fungible token standard on Bitcoin, and claims it increases the number of ‘junk’ transaction outputs. Even Taproot, which underpins Ordinals, has limitations like dependence on off-chain data. Rodarmor’s desire to avoid unnecessary transaction outputs might be a tacit acknowledgment of a common criticism of Ordinals: that they drove up Bitcoin’s transaction fees by creating yet another digital asset-themed craze.

Rodarmor thinks current protocols for creating Bitcoin-based fungible tokens are not good enough. He has mostly deflected debates on whether fungible tokens even belong on Bitcoin in the first place. If they do, in his opinion, they should use his Runes protocol that will launch on April 20. His primary motivation seems to be creating a competing protocol to the BRC-20 standard that he doesn’t control.

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