A curious phenomenon in the crypto industry is affecting media coverage of the US presidential election. For four weeks, prediction markets that accept crypto bets like Polymarket and Kalshi have broadcasted decisive and strengthening odds for Donald Trump ahead of Kamala Harris.

However, many traditional polls display tighter or Harris-favoring odds over the same time period.

Protos has created a side-by-side comparison of election odds on Polymarket and Kalshi versus New York Times (NYT) and Nate Silver since October 1. Their divergence is unmistakable.

Read more: Pro-Trump whale Fredi9999 is shifting Polymarket odds

Is this year’s new crop of ‘real money at stake’ prediction markets providing the media with a more accurate prediction of the November 5 election? Or are these thinly traded and mostly offshore markets easily swayed by pseudonymous traders with a few million dollars?

Landslide or sub-1% odds, depending on the citation

Trump has certainly gone out of his way to court crypto voters. He spoke at the largest Bitcoin conference, owns a Casascius bitcoin, hosted a dinner for NFT buyers, and promised to “keep Elizabeth Warren and her goons away from your bitcoin.”

He has also promised to extend clemency to Ross Ulbricht and rename bitcoin seized by the US government the “strategic national bitcoin stockpile.”

Harris, for her part, has hesitated to comment much on the crypto industry, promising generally to “encourage innovative technologies like AI and digital assets.” Some of her staff speak positively about her intentions, and she has specifically promised to “protect cryptocurrency investments so black men who make them know their money is safe.”

In all, it is easy to see why Trump is favored among crypto voters. Their money has flowed onto prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi and boosted Trump’s favor far beyond national polling averages.

Media, in turn, frequently cite these crypto-influenced election odds as a supposed citation of Trump’s increasing lead over Harris over the last four weeks. 

However, these crypto-friendly platforms have only meaningfully existed for this election. Averages from traditional pollsters such as Nate Silver, NYT, or FiveThirtyEight show tight odds within a few basis points.

Real crypto at stake, or washed around for election odds media?

On crypto-friendly Polymarket and Kalshi, Trump has a 66.3% and 62% chance of winning, respectively. Contrast those figures with traditional polling averages. Nate Silver shows 47.5%, NYT shows 48%, The Hill shows 48%, and FiveThirtyEight shows 46.7%.

Although Polymarket has gained a disproportionate share of US media attention in spite of its alleged ban of US users, crypto is not unique in its prediction that Trump will win the 2024 election. Certain non-crypto publications like Economist and Fox favor Trump.

Most traditional polls are evenly split, without enough margin of error to forecast the outcome.

Fortunately, disagreement over electoral outcomes is a purposeful feature of American democracy. This year, crypto prediction markets enable groups of traders to gamble millions and earn media attention for their bets. Traditional polls have a distinct methodology.

In any case, the actual results of the election will become certain no earlier than the evening of November 5.

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The post CHART: Crypto election markets and polls show very different odds appeared first on Protos.

US presidential candidate Kamala Harris was roundly criticized after she proudly tweeted a list of campaign promises targeted squarely at black male voters. As one of her five promises, she swore to ‘protect cryptocurrency investments so black men who make them know their money is safe.’

The problems were immediately obvious and her post went viral for all the wrong reasons. Almost without exception, comments were negative.

“Pandering to Black American men is disgusting and degrading,” wrote one observer. “Buying votes should be criminal,” posted another. Many noted, “This is overt racial discrimination.”

Thousands of people also liked comments calling her policy racist, confused, wild, absurd, and desperate. Almost no one posted a positive reaction to her announcement.

Read more: Crypto runs with fake Kamala Harris-Gary Gensler news

Harris crafted her announcement to appeal to a large voting population ahead of the November 5 election, but it’s unclear whether her initiative will have any positive impact. Indeed, the black demographic has been a source of concern for Democratic polling amid questions over Harris’ role in that community.

Some polls by pro-crypto groups have indicated that black men disproportionately invest in crypto assets. Although there are important reasons to question this statistic and the pollsters behind it, Harris’ campaign might have issued this promise as a way to respond to pressure from groups that cite this statistic.

Indeed, it’s not clear which black men asked for such protection nor is it clear that any person of any race expects a president to divert their attention away from national matters to somehow ‘protect’ voluntary, self-directed investments within one of the most obviously risky categories of speculation.

But if the initial reaction to her announcement is any indication, the bizarre move could actually cause voters to question her discernment and priorities altogether.

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The post Why does Kamala Harris think she needs to protect black men’s crypto? appeared first on Protos.

Kamala Harris released a new policy statement this morning with one glaring omission: crypto. Political observers immediately noticed that despite widespread rumors of Harris adopting a pro-crypto platform three weeks ago, her official website now confirms nothing of the sort.

Archive.org confirms the publication of her new webpage within the past 24 hours. That URL has been offline since July; it last referenced Joe Biden’s policy statements.

According to Harris’ own list of campaign promises, she has no particular position on the crypto industry. This matches Protos’ August 22 fact-check, noting that claims about Harris’ crypto policies emanated from a single campaign advisor.

Read more: Kamala Harris ‘pro-crypto policy’ is yet more fake news

Harris discusses other industries by name, including semiconductors and artificial intelligence. Crypto did not make the list.

As of publication time, the sitting Vice President has not notified her followers on X of her new webpage.

Critics have pointed out Harris’ conspicuous lack of clear policy statements on common presidential campaign issues for months. With delay, she has now provided an answer – of sorts. Of course, for the crypto industry specifically, it is an answer without any promise of change to the status quo.

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The post Kamala Harris publishes policy statement, fails to mention crypto appeared first on Protos.

Another day, another fake Kamala Harris headline. Already this week, we’ve heard all about her non-appointment of Gary Gensler and her non-existent unrealized crypto gains tax, and today we have to point out that the 2024 White House hopeful hasn’t adopted a ‘pro-crypto policy.’

The US Representative for North Carolina called it “Big News” and said he was “thrilled about this important policy statement.” Users posted headlines like “Kamala Harris Promises Pro-Crypto Policies” to millions of views. For a day, X (formerly Twitter) suggested endless posts about the supposed policy shift on its Trending page.

Like so much ‘news’ that sends social media into a frenzy, however, it never happened.

Kamala Harris’ actual crypto policy

So, what did happen? Well, rather than Harris suddenly adopting a pro-crypto platform to boost her presidential campaign, Bloomberg published an article.

Specifically, behind its paywall, it ran the quote, “She’s going to support policies that ensure that emerging technologies and that sort of industry can continue to grow.”

That quote related only broadly to the ‘crypto community’ and didn’t come from Harris or her spokesperson. It was actually said by Brian Nelson, a mere campaign advisor.

Read more: Crypto runs with fake Kamala Harris-Gary Gensler news

Moreover, he provided no further information about any concrete changes — no platform documents, no written policies, and no references whatsoever.

Aware of its flimsy basis for publishing the article, Bloomberg reporters admitted that people working for Harris — not Harris — are simply ‘signaling’ that they’re ‘interested’ in ‘safeguards’ on the crypto industry.

Yes, that’s the ‘big news’ that earned millions of impressions on social media this week.

Unfortunately, with many people not bothering to read the entire article, confirmation bias did its thing and crypto fans rushed to applaud Harris for her ostensible change of heart.

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The post Kamala Harris ‘pro-crypto policy’ is yet more fake news appeared first on Protos.